Loading

NGN Liquidity Intelligence

Initializing dashboard...
Back to dashboard
Methodology · where every number comes from

How every number on this page was worked out

Every figure on this site is one of two things: (a) read live from a public API and labelled as such, or (b) my own estimate, with the calculation and source list below. If you can't trace any number back to its source from here in under 45 seconds, this page has failed and I want to know. 📎

1 · Live market data

API calls are executed server-side via Next.js Route Handlers to avoid CORS issues and hide sensitive implementation details. These endpoints are protected by rate limiting and a shared-cache layer to prevent upstream bans.

Tickers (every NGN pair, last price, 24 h high/low, base volume, % change) , read live from https://app.quidax.io/api/v1/markets/tickers. Validated with Zod before use; malformed rows are dropped (and the dropped count is surfaced on the snapshot). Cached server-side for 10 s across all viewers via an in-memory last-known-good cache with single-flight upstream calls; the CDN holds the response for 10 s with up to 30 s stale-while-revalidate. Upstream is hit at most ~6 times per minute per function instance regardless of viewer count.
30-day USDT/NGN and cNGN/NGN daily candles, read live from /markets/usdtngn/k and /markets/cngnngn/k. If the K-line endpoint is unavailable, the USDT/NGN chart falls back to a deterministic synthetic series anchored to the last observed price; the chart chip then reads synthetic fallback. The cNGN chart never falls back to synthetic. It degrades to an empty state with a label.
24 h NGN turnover and stablecoin share, computed as last_price_ngn × base_volumeper NGN-quoted pair, summed across all NGN pairs only (the `ngnTurnover` helper refuses to sum non-NGN markets). Quidax's vol field is base-asset volume per their docs.

2 · FX references

CBN's NFEM daily print and the parallel-market midpoint do not publish free machine-readable feeds. As of May 2026, the dashboard auto-fetches the USD/NGN rate from open.er-api.com/v6/latest/USD (primary, requires no API key!) and cdn.jsdelivr.net/@fawazahmed0/currency-api (backup), with a 6-hour in-memory cache. The parallel rate is estimated as +1.8% over official (the historical BDC spread midpoint). If both APIs fail, the dashboard falls back to manually verified static values.

Auto-fetched CBN rate: 1,350.47 (as of 2026-08-25, auto-updated from open.er-api.com). Parallel estimate: ₦1,374.78.
Fallback values: ₦1371 (CBN NFEM) and ₦1395 (parallel), last manually verified 2026-05-18. These are only used when both live APIs are unreachable.
Staleness policy (fallback only): < 3 days "ok", 3–10 days "stale" (% difference hidden in the UI), ≥ 10 days "very-stale" (the whole comparison is hidden). Live API rates are always treated as fresh.
vsCBN % and FX-gap % are derived from these references. They auto-update when the upstream rate changes.

3 · Competitive matrix

Quidax row figures are read live from the markets API; every other row is an analyst estimate verified manually at the stamped capture date. Each row carries its own confidence rating (high / med / low).

  • Quidaxverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence high

    Listed cNGN on March 12, 2025 (per Quidax corporate blog), five weeks after Busha's February 3 debut (per TechCabal); enterprise-grade USDT/NGN liquidity

  • Yellow Cardverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence Company-announced

    Pan-African B2B stablecoin infrastructure; deep enterprise GTM across 20 African markets. Discontinued all retail trading as of January 1, 2026 (app deactivated, users required to withdraw funds by Dec 31, 2025). Holds a December 2023 Certificate of Entry into the Register of Business within Virtual Currencies — not a full SEC provisional licence equivalent to Busha or Quidax.

    • yellowcard.io / about (countries served)
    • Yellow Card retail discontinuationYellow Card discontinued all retail trading, deactivated its app, and required users to withdraw funds before December 31, 2025. As of January 1, 2026, it operates exclusively as B2B stablecoin infrastructure.
    • SEC Nigeria — Certificate of Entry (Dec 2023)Yellow Card obtained a Certificate of Entry into the Register of Business within Virtual Currencies in December 2023. This is a different regulatory instrument from the provisional VASP/DAX licences granted to Busha and Quidax under the August 2024 ARIP cohort.
  • Bushaverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence SEC-provisional

    Strong retail UX, SEC-licensed alongside Quidax, recurring-buy and USD-card features. Busha Business offers full B2B infrastructure: stablecoin on/off-ramp APIs, treasury management, OTC desk, and developer APIs.

    • busha.io — public listings
    • SEC Nigeria — VASP licenseesBusha named in SEC Nigeria's August 2024 ARIP cohort of provisionally-approved digital asset operators (DAX/VASP), alongside Quidax.
  • Lunoverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence Verified

    Trusted retail brand expanding into staking and tokenized US stocks. Operates in 3 African markets (Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya); no NGN-native B2B API. Regulated and active in Nigeria, but exact SEC VASP status is unknown.

    • luno.com/en/countries (African countries served)Luno serves 3 African markets: Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya (re-entered 2025). Regulated and active, but not in the August 2024 ARIP cohort.
    • SEC Nigeria — ARIP CohortLuno's exact SEC Nigeria status is unknown. Reports from early 2024 indicated they were in discussions, but they were not publicly named in the August 2024 ARIP cohort of approved VASPs.
  • Roqquverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence med

    USD virtual cards, futures trading (launched 2025), EU-licensed via Lithuania. Expanded into East Africa via verified Flitaa acquisition (July 2025, first intra-African crypto M&A).

4 · B2B-only rails (non-exchange competitors)

Included to answer the "what about Conduit / Bitnob?" question. These rails compete with Quidax-as-a-Service even though they don't run a retail order book.

  • Conduit · Stablecoin orchestratorverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01)

    B2B cross-border payments using stablecoin rails; corridor-agnostic API. (Fee structure: typically percentage-based volume fees rather than flat dollar network/withdrawal fees).

    https://conduit.financial
  • Bitnob · Crypto-native PSPverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01)

    Africa-first Bitcoin/stablecoin business and remittance API; strong NG developer mindshare. Actively partnered with Strike for cross-border US-Africa Lightning/stablecoin settlements.

    https://bitnob.com
  • Stables · Treasury platformverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01)

    USD-stablecoin treasury account with virtual card issuance; appeals to SME treasurers. Strategic partnerships with Mastercard and Circle for global card processing.

    https://stables.money
  • Yellow Card OTC · OTC railverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01)

    Counted separately from the exchange matrix: enterprise OTC is the real adjacent buyer. Deep liquidity network powered by API integrations and enterprise partnerships across 20 African nations.

    https://yellowcard.io

5 · B2B Market Sizes

Market Size is the annual flow proxy in USD for the buyer category. Capture % is the share of Market Size Quidax could realistically win in 24 months. Our Cut (Fee) is gross revenue per dollar of captured flow. Gross-margin default is the analyst estimate used in the in-page model. The five segments are disjoint by buyer type and revenue line; the data file notes how double-counting is avoided. Confidence is "low" on every row. Market sizes this large are always model outputs, not measurements.

⚠️ Methodology note: The Cross-border B2B ($10B), Corporate/PSP ($6.5B), and Remittance ($4.5B) market sizes are grounded in NBS trade data, CBN BoP releases, and the World Bank remittances brief. The Fintech Treasury ($4.2B) and Embedded Crypto ($2.8B) market sizes are speculative projections based on analyst modeling of corporate asset allocations and fintech product roadmap tracking — not hard public census data. All five carry "low" confidence.

  • Cross-border B2B settlement (SME / fintech)verified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence Derived / Analyst estimate

    Mid-market fintechs and SMEs settling supplier invoices into China, UAE, India via stablecoin rails instead of correspondent banking.

    Market Size
    $10.0B
    Capture range
    0.31.2%
    Our Cut
    0.35%
    Default gross margin
    55%
  • Corporate / PSP payout treasuryverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence Derived / Analyst estimate

    Licensed Nigerian businesses (PSPs, merchant acquirers, large corporates) running cross-border payouts and FX hedging through an API.

    Market Size
    $6.5B
    Capture range
    0.21%
    Our Cut
    0.28%
    Default gross margin
    60%
  • Remittance corridors (inbound, B2B side only)verified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence Derived / Analyst estimate

    Stablecoin liquidity provisioning to licensed MTOs and remittance fintechs serving the Nigeria-inbound diaspora flow. We count only the wholesale (B2B liquidity) leg, not the retail recipient leg.

    Market Size
    $4.5B
    Capture range
    0.20.8%
    Our Cut
    0.18%
    Default gross margin
    50%
  • Fintech treasury & FX hedgingverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence Derived / Analyst estimate

    Nigerian fintechs and exporters holding USD-exposure via USDT to manage naira volatility.

    Market Size
    $4.2B
    Capture range
    0.83%
    Our Cut
    0.18%
    Default gross margin
    65%
    • CBN — exchange-rate volatility series; analyst spread observationsTAM is a speculative model output based on typical corporate asset allocations and observed fintech treasury behavior, not hard public census data.
  • Embedded crypto in fintech appsverified 2026-06-01 (Updated 2026-06-01) · confidence Derived / Analyst estimate

    Neobanks and PSPs offering buy/sell/hold via white-label exchange APIs (Quidax-as-a-Service).

    Market Size
    $2.8B
    Capture range
    1.56%
    Our Cut
    0.60%
    Default gross margin
    70%
    • Analyst observation of fintech product roadmapsTAM is a speculative projection based on product roadmap tracking and build-vs-buy analysis, not a public dataset.

6 · Corridor flows and speed/cost claims

Corridor annual flow figures are proxies from NBS Foreign Trade Statistics (NG → CN: $13B confirmed), CBN Balance of Payments (NG → AE: approximately $4B current baseline, projected to grow following January 2026 CEPA), and the World Bank Migration & Remittances Brief (diaspora → NG: official $20–22B, estimated true volume including informal channels likely exceeds $23B). The NG ↔ KE corridor is presented as an aspirational AfCFTA opportunity — formal bilateral trade is under $100M per year per UN COMTRADE and OEC data. Bank-wire speed/cost is an analyst estimate based on published SWIFT correspondent-banking and VASP pricing for the NGN leg (typical range 2.5–5% and 2–5 business days). Stablecoin speed/cost is an analyst estimate of wall-clock end-to-end including on-ramp and off-ramp (typical range 5–15 minutes and 0.6–1.5%), not just the on-chain hop. The "speed multiplier" on each card divides like-for-like wall-clock minutes.

7 · Stablecoin demand-purpose mix

The donut chart in the stablecoin deep-dive shows demand purpose, what NGN holders use crypto for (settlement, savings, trading), and is not 24 h trading turnover. The turnover ratio on the KPI grid is the live calculation from Quidax tickers; the two figures are not comparable. The 86% stablecoin share is an analyst estimate calibrated against Chainalysis SSA reports, TRM Labs data, public PSP commentary, and exchange-volume mix data — it is not a directly measured figure. The exact percentage split (USDT 66%, USDC 12%, cNGN 8%) is directionally supported but should be treated as an approximation. cNGN is issued by the African Stablecoin Consortium (ASC) under SEC ARIP oversight. Normalised to 100%.

8 · Ops & reliability

The in-memory cache and rate-limiter are best-effort per Vercel function instance. For multi-region production, swap for Upstash Ratelimit (Redis-backed sliding window) and Upstash Redis for the shared cache. With the current 10 s TTL a single instance hits upstream at most ~6 times/min. Recommended monitor: a Better Uptime / Checkly probe on /api/markets expecting 200 in < 2 s.

If any source on this page 404s, the row was wrong and I want to know. Email folajinmi13@gmail.com.